CHICAGO, April 10, 2026 — The federal government’s latest gauge of food inflation packs both good news and bad for the nation’s food-away-from-home business.
On the positive side, menu prices rose in March by the lowest rate since January, edging up just 0.2%, according to figures released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The uptick left prices 3.8% higher on average than the level of March 2025.
But a household’s typical grocery expense fell by 0.2% during the month, broadening the price gap between food prepared at home and what’s cooked or served elsewhere. March ended with food-at-home prices running about 1.9% above the level of a year ago, or half the rate of increase in menu prices.
Restaurants and other food-away-from-home sources have attributed a widespread slump in traffic this year to consumers’ refusal or inability to pay the higher prices they see on menus. The slower creep in grocery prices is believed to be part of the reason consumers have been dining out less often.
The public’s assessment of its economic situation is already at an historic low, according to the University of Michigan. The school’s April gauge of consumer confidence, also released on Friday, shows the public’s propensity to spend is at its lowest point in all the years consumer sentiment has been tracked by the university.
The main reason, according to the researchers, is concern about the United States’ attack on Iran and the potential economic fallout at home.
BLS noted that price inflation has been more severe for full-service places, whose listed charges are on average running 4.3% above their year-ago menu prices. Menu prices at limited-service restaurants are about 3.1% higher, according to BLS.
The overall Consumer Price Index rose by 0.9%, a several-fold acceleration from the rates clocked in January and February. The increase left prices about 3.3% above where they were in March 2025.
The head-turning figure in Friday’s statistical release was the 21.2% increase in gasoline prices, an apparent result of the United States’ attack on Iran. Restaurant sales tend to go down when gas charges take a bigger bite of consumers’ disposable income.